What you will gain from this Workshop

• An appreciation that there is more out there than a Price-Earnings ratio
• An understanding of how the rise of high frequency trading is impacting onto the trading statistics being reported by the world’s Exchanges
• An insight into the Chartist’ world – The markets are not ‘random walks’ Insight into how the psychology of Investor behaviour affects decisions
• An appreciation of the limitations of Discounted Cash Flow modelling

What you will learn from this Workshop

• That you do not value Banks like Insurers, Retailers or Oil & Gas Companies
• Choosing the appropriate valuation methodology to analyse the numbers
• How to interpret Candlestick charts for shorter term entry & exit timings
• How best to combine Technical Analysis indicators to achieve the best results
• That Efficient Markets theory might not be the best starting point for investors

Who should attend – Those working in

• Asset Management
• Wealth Management
• Sovereign Wealth Funds
• Equity Research & Analysis
• Investment Banking with Asset/Wealth Managers as Clients
• Financial Journalists

Day One

Fusion Analysis explained; an introduction to Behavioural Finance

• In pursuit of Price discovery - A Fusion of numbers, patterns & human behaviour
• Rational decision making vs instinct & intuition. The madness of crowds
• Prospect Theory
• Fear of Regret, Heuristics, Framing
• Cognitive behavioral biases - Anchoring & extrapolation

Efficient Market Theory & Fundamental Analysis Techniques

• Efficient Markets & Rational Investors – a recap; but are they?
• The growth of Algorithmic high frequency trading & the consequences
• Analysing which Fundamentals? Earnings, Dividends, Assets, Sales What is the correct Valuation methodology to use? It depends on the sector
• The love affair with the Price-Earnings Ratio. A better tool – PEGs

A walk through the most appropriate Valuation techniques

• How to value Banks – Price/Book Value, RoE, NPLs, Net Interest Margins
• How  to value Insurers – Embedded & Appraisal Values, Dividends
• How to value Oil & Gas Companies – Boepd, Reserves/Production, Royalties
• How to value Manufacturers & Retailers – EBITDA & Enterprise Values vs Sales
• Case Study – Running the numbers in practice

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation methodology

• Understanding the limitations of modelling – Garbage in, Garbage out
• Risk Free Rates, Betas & the Equity Risk Premium
• Deriving the Cost of Equity & the Cost of Debt
• The Discount Rate - Weighted Average Cost of Capital
• Terminal Value derivation and forecasting into Perpetuity

 Case Study (Excel based) – DCF in practice (Laptops required)

Day Two

Case Studies on Day Two will involve participants working on laptops analyzing Bloomberg screen grabs to see for themselves how to interpret the patterns & indicators generated by today’s Financial markets.

Introduction to Technical Analysis. Price discovery at work

• What is it all about? Timing your entry & exit points. Implications
• What is more important than why
• Sentiment, Flow of Funds and Market Indicators
• Classic patterns to watch out for – Channels, Breakouts, Head & Shoulders

Momentum Indicators

• Simple Moving Averages
• Weighted Moving Averages
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
• Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)

Volatility and Retracement Indicators

• Bollinger Bands
• Moving Averages and Trading Envelopes combined
• Fibonacci Analysis
• Elliott Wave Principles

Candlestick Charting

• Terminology; What the Candles tell you and what they don’t
• Intra-Day High, Low, Open & Close price indicators
• Dojis – Long-Legged, Dragonfly, Gravestone
• Candles and Dojis combined, Star Positioning
• Hammers and Hanging  Man

Wrap Up

• Scaling the Fundamentals to generate Buy & Sell signals
• Scaling the Technical Indicators to generate Buy & Sell signals
• Blending & Weighting the trigger indicators